Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Obama and the Premediated Presidency

Caroline Maun perceptively asks below if I am theorizing the premediated presidency.  Yes, we can.  I may do this in more detail in the conclusion to my book, but for now a quick sketch.

First, presidential campaigns are inevitably exercises in premediation. Campaign promises are not predictions; they are not contracts; they are not promises in a strict sense.  What they are (along with platforms and policy statements) are premediations of what a potential future might look like under, say, a McCain or an Obama presidency.  These promises are fluid--they respond to the exigencies of a long campaign.  They are, one might say, virtual promises, or premediated promises of the kinds of presidency that might be brought about. Like other premediations, campaign promises and platforms work to prepare the public to be ready for the laws, policies, and presidential decisions that will follow the election of a new president.

The Obama campaign understood the nature of electoral premediation in a much more detailed and complex manner than did the McCain campaign. Indeed, one might even say that Obama's election was a result of his furnishing a much more successful premediation of an Obama presidency than the McCain campaign was able to muster of a McCain presidency. From the get-go Obama decided to appear presidential--to assume the mantle of the presidency even before he had won the Democratic nomination.  The famous kerfuffle over the pseudo-presidential seal might have been a case of going to far--but it was emblematic of the Obama strategy to premediate an Obama presidency as a strategy for getting elected president.  

Obama understood, as well, that premediation involved the deployment of mediality as a way to shape and modulate the electorate's affectivity.  "My Barack Obama" and the extraordinary use of mobile social networking software enabled the Obama campaign both to create an affect of "hope" and "change" among his supporters but also provided the tools for his supporters to appropriate those tools to provide affective collectivities that supported the goals of the campaign. Obama's major speeches, too, both during the primary campaign and on election night, were similarly presidential, presenting him rhetorically and affectively as if he were already president.  

This premediated presidency has only intensified in this unusual (but also ordinary) period between the election and the inauguration. What makes this ordinary transition period unusual in this case is in part the intensity of the financial crisis that the nation (and its next president) faces; this crisis contributes to the intensity of the premediated presidency. Even before the election, Obama and McCain were positioned as virtual presidents in their response to the potential end of finance capitalism that reached crisis stage in September. 

Now that the nation knows who will succeed Bush, the pressure to premediate how the Obama administration would address the financial crisis is even greater than during the campaign. Indeed, through his skillful deployment of print, televisual, and networked media, Obama is attempting to manipulate the economy through premediation--which is at this point the most powerful weapon he has.  Even working with a Democratic-controlled Congress has serious limitations, as any legislation that gets passed must be signed off on by Bush.  So Obama orchestrates his transition announcements thoughtfully and with confidence--using the tools of the media (leaks, interviews, press conferences, bloggers, etc.) to try to reassure the public and the financial markets that an Obama presidency will bring better days ahead.

Given the snarky Republican references to Obama as the chosen one, the next messiah, it is worth noting the affinities between this transitional time and what Giorgio Agamben characterizes (following Paul) as "the time that remains"--the time between the announcement of the messiah and the commencement of messianic time. For Agamben this temporal space is the space of the coming community, the space of promise or hope.  

I'll end for now by suggesting that we are, in relation to the premediated Obama presidency, precisely in this messianic moment, awaiting the community to come.  Of course, Obama is not the messiah and messianic time will not begin on 1/20/09.  Which means that, in some sense, it is this moment before the election that is bound to be the most promising of the Obama presidency, the moment that premediates the time that is to come.  When the Obama presidency does come, Obama's best strategy would be to continue to premediate the community to come, to try to maintain his presidency as a continuation of the time that remains, a continuation of the promise of messianic time. At its worst, however, the Obama presidency will transform itself into business as usual, a presidency like all others that brings us back not to this interesting moment of the time that remains but to the daily temporality of the Washington grind that has worn us all down during the increasingly dismal second term of George W. Bush.   

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Premature Inauguration

In yet another desperate attempt at a "game changer," the McCain campaign today accused Obama of "premature inauguration."

McCain, on the other hand, has the stamina to keep going until election day.


Thursday, October 23, 2008

MoveOn.org: Premediating an Obama Defeat to GOTV

Last evening I received the following email from MoveOn.org (you probably did, too):



When I clicked on the link in the email, my web browser (like your's, but with a difference) opened to the following screen:



When I clicked on the video, here's what I saw and heard, which was similar to what you saw and heard:


MoveOn's decision to premediate an Obama defeat as a means of getting out the vote is simultaneously brilliant and risky. While it is clearly meant to be ironic, insulting voters to get them to the polls could be a dangerous move. But it is brilliant premediation, remediating the format of any number of political blogs to premediate a future that presumably no MoveOn supporter would ever want to experience. There are a number of deft touches, including a Dow under 8000 and an array of other stories below the window pictured above that premediate the consequences of an Obama defeat in a mixture of semi-serious and tongue-in-cheek stories:



Whether this works as a get-out-the-vote strategy will probably be impossible to determine. But what is undeniable is that it is a brilliant example of premediation, another example of the predominance of premediation as the post-9/11 media regime. But where the Bush administration worked with the print, televisual, and networked media in 2002 and 2003 to manipulate the public to support the Iraq War, MoveOn is employing premediation in an attempt to mobilize voters to act to put the opposition party in power, not by premediating an Obama victory, but an Obama defeat. Let's hope it works.

Polling, Projection, Premediation: The Affective Force of FiveThirtyEight.com



Whenever I feel down about the prospects of an Obama victory, I click on FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right. The reassuring blue-and-red pie-charts showing Obama with more than 340 electoral votes, a 93% chance of an Obama victory, and a projection of as many as 57 Democratic senate seats always calm my nerves.  As I drill down the site to monitor the latest national and state-by-state polls, the super-poll tracker, the graph of simulated electoral vote distributions, and the reassuring scenario analyses, I am almost instantly reassured about the sanity of my fellow Americans.

FiveThirtyEight.com is to my mind the smartest of the various websites that correlate polling data from across the country.  And so far at least the most reassuring.  I've been meaning for a while to say something about this phenomenon, in particular about the relationship between polling, projection, and premediation.

According to Wikipedia, the first presidential electoral poll was a straw vote taken in 1824, which (incorrectly) showed Andrew Jackson defeating John Quincy Adams.  Such polls or straw votes are indicative of the nearly universal human desire to predict or foresee what will transpire in the future. But I would be reluctant to call such polls early versions of premediation, which I have tried consistently to distinguish from prediction on the basis of the more open, creative, and potential nature of premediation.

I have also tried to underscore the formal features of premediation, the way in which premediation invariably involves the remediation of the future in a mediated format meant to be indistinguishable from the remediation of the present or recent past. Thus the formal conventions through which weather maps forecast a hurricane, a blizzard, or a heat wave are very different from the way in which those meteorological events are reported as and after they occur. Insofar as polling or projection manifests itself in a media format different from that in which the election will be presented when it occurs, it is not in a strict sense premediation.     

The remarkable proliferation of polls and projections in the age of networked digital media, however, is clearly of a piece with the overall cultural orientation towards the future that the concept of premediation is meant to mark. And when those electoral projections are remediated in precisely the same graphic media formats that will be used on election day and beyond, premediation is clearly at work. Thus on CNN John King has been premediating the results of the upcoming election using precisely the same interactive mapping technologies he used for the primaries, which allow him to write on the map like John Madden using a telestrator and to zoom in to precinct level with technology identical to that of Google Maps.  

The affective power of premediation is, I would argue, undeniable.  What makes FiveThirtyEight.com so reassuring, however, is not only the information it presents about Obama's lead in multiple state and national polls.  Indeed, I would argue that the reassuring affect that this site invariably produces in me is hardly due to the data it furnishes at all--as I already know most of this data from reading newspapers, watching cable news, and surfing the web. What makes this site so reassuring is its conventionalized map of the United States, showing a predominance of blue states in exactly the same media format as I expect it to appear on the evening of November 4, or perhaps the morning of November 5, when we learn that Barack Hussein Obama has been elected the 44th president of the United States of America.


Sunday, October 19, 2008

Ohio Resident Hangs Obama in Effigy

I really wonder if we're going to get more of these kind of desperate racist expressions as Obama's election seems more and more inevitable.  And, of course, the real worry is whether these kinds of things will haunt an Obama presidency for its duration.



Saturday, October 18, 2008

McCain Radio Address Calls Obama a Socialist

To follow up on my last two posts, here is a premediated link to McCain's weekly radio address (posted on the web, as is customary, before the address is broadcast), in which he deploys Joe the Plumber again, using him to explicitly call Obama a socialist.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Red Baiting/Race Baiting Photo

Thanks to Steve Shaviro for calling my attention to this photo, found on Flickr.